To assess the causes of America’s activation in this crisis, the following points are significant:
1. The main cause of the Caucasus crisis is the non-resolution of the Karabakh issue, which has not been a priority in America’s foreign policy. America, as one of the three heads of the Minsk Group, has only spoken in general and invited the parties to negotiations since the beginning of the Karabakh conflict, and the US, as the most effective member of the United Nations Security Council, has not taken any action to implement the four resolutions of this council and to remove the occupation of the lands of the Republic of Azerbaijan.
2. After the Ukraine war and NATO’s serious confrontation with Russia, the United States decided to expand its confrontation with Russia by activating its policy in the South Caucasus and isolating Moscow in this region. In this way, Europe is also with the United States, and Brussels, the headquarters of the European Union, came to the stage to resolve the differences between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In fact, the presence of America in the Caucasus crisis today is not because of a friendship with Baku and Yerevan, nor because of its interest in solving this crisis, but because of Russia’s declining influence in the Caucasus and its policies in this region.
3. At the meeting in Virginia, the US maintained its traditional approach and, without offering a solution to the Karabakh issue, asked Azerbaijan and Armenia through diplomatic recommendations to continue peaceful negotiations to achieve peace. Of course, US Secretary of State Blinken’s concern about the establishment of the checkpoint of the Republic of Azerbaijan at the Lachin crossing and US support for Armenia’s peaceful approach were proof of Washington’s favoring of Yerevan. Under the influence of the strong Armenian lobby in this country, America usually takes a position in favor of Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and in recent years, Pashinyan’s presence as a Western-oriented prime minister in Armenia has made America determined to support Yerevan. The Armenian lobby is one of the most powerful ethnic lobbies in America, and its two main goals are recognition of the massacre of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire and recognition of the independence of Karabakh. Armenia’s policy is to associate the Jewish lobby with the Armenian lobby, and in this regard, a few years ago, Edward Nalbandian, the foreign minister of this country, went to Israel and met with Ravin Rivlin, the head of this regime. Compared to Shimon Peres, Rivlin openly supported the Armenian lobby, and his associates, including parliament speaker Yuli Edelstein and Israeli deputy foreign minister Zeo Elkin, had the same position.
4. Although Russia played a role in the Caucasus by mediating between Baku and Yerevan in the 2020 war, due to the non-resolution of the Karabakh issue in the Moscow agreement, the sporadic wars between Azerbaijan and Armenia continued, and an opportunity was created for the entry of Western actors to solve this problem. The reality is that the main obstacle to solving the Caucasus crisis is neither the Lachin crossing nor the Zangzor route, and peace and stability will not be established until the Karabakh conflict is resolved within the framework of the principle of the territorial integrity of the countries.
If the international borders are not changed, Nagorno-Karabakh will return to its homeland, the Republic of Azerbaijan, and the Zangzor route in the Sivnik province of Armenia will become an effective transit route within the framework of the country’s territorial integrity. If Russia wants to prevent the presence of America and Europe in this dispute, it should complete the Moscow agreement by solving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.
5. The Republic of Azerbaijan should also note that the White House is not seeking to solve the Caucasus crisis by correcting its unsuccessful policy in the South Caucasus. Washington is trying to isolate Russia, and this competition will not help solve the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh and return of this region to Azerbaijan. Blinken’s whiny positions towards the Republic of Azerbaijan, America’s support for Armenia’s pacifist policy, and in general, Washington’s siding with Yerevan in the Virginia meeting prove that Baku should not trust America. It is better for the Republic of Azerbaijan to return to the region and, together with Russia and Iran, pursue the solution to the Karabakh problem within the framework of the territorial integrity of the countries and the non-change of international borders, as well as providing suitable conditions for the Armenian minority.
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