Biden will soon sit at the desk in the Oval Office as the 46th president of the US and Trump will have to leave the WH.
The way Trump looked at international organizations has changed him into a special phenomenon – a direct threat to the existing foundations of the international community. It is undeniable that world is delighted that Trump is to leave the White House.
This change will be felt in Iran as well. The change in prices of gold and foreign currencies manifested that the markets do not change; they decide based on political facts.
When on Thursday, Trump was leading in battleground states and foreign currency prices went up a bit in Iran and stock exchange markets of China and Hong Kong got more worried.
The above-mentioned facts show the difference of strategy of the outgoing and the incoming presidents and discourse. Biden has 30 years of experience in politics at different levels – from the Congress to the White House. He is quite predictable and will act in measured ways.
Trump disputed the Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed by his predecessor exploiting it to challenge the US Democratic president to advance his populist agenda.
The JCPOA was signed by the US Democratic administration and Biden, holding the post of the vice-president, has been involved in 10-year process of intensive negotiations. As it turns out, the US president-elect has a motivation to return to Iran nuclear deal, and in a larger scale, to other international treaties.
It has been heard that Antony Blinken, former deputy of John Kerry who signed the JCPOA, may be chosen as Biden’s secretary of state. Blinken has repeatedly criticized Trump for the way he dealt with the JCPOA. When Trump was trying to activate the dispute resolution mechanism, Blinken wrote in a Twitter message that the US has no right to do it because only the members of the JCPOA are entitled to use the procedure and the US is no longer a member.
He believes that Biden has the power to revive US role in diplomacy and dispute resolution in the world.
It is quite natural that Biden relies on diplomacy in dealing with Iran as well. But the question is who should take the first step? Iran believes that it was Washington that left the deal and deprived Iran of its economic interests so the US should take the first step to return to the international accord.
For Biden, things will be more complicated. He has talked about returning to the JCPOA, but, he has also said that Iran should reverse the five steps it has taken to reduce commitments.
In this regards, in an interview with CBS, Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif totally dismissed any renegotiation of the deal, adding, "If we wanted to do that, we would have done it with President Trump four years ago.”
Hence, both Iran and the new US Administration will act cautiously about this issue. After this stage, and most probably after the new government in Iran takes office in June 2021, negotiations will be more serious.
In this situation, it is likely that the US will reduce the sanctions and let Iran use international financial system and have an oil selling 500,000 bpd.
Biden’s presence in the White House has brought the hope of reduction of sanctions for Iranian businesses and economy.
What’s more, one should have in mind that Biden is entering the White House in a condition that Trump has imposed all kinds of sanctions on Iran, which gives the US a good bargaining power.
Iranian oil sale has dropped from 2.5 million to 300,000 bpd. And a huge amount of Iranian money has been blocked in other countries. So the US new government will most probably have no rush for talks and will take up the strategy of cautious patience.
Translated by: Hossein Abolqassemi
Edited by: Safar Sarabi
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