By A. R. Ghofrani*
After Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi declared that the fourth round of Iran-US negotiations was postponed due to logistical considerations, speculations have been raised by both sides of the talks. According to some sources, American officials were quoted as saying, “The time of the fourth round of talks had not been decided, and the time for that round had to be fixed later.”
• Certainly, the postponement of the fourth round of negotiations should not be attributed merely to logistical reasons. However, it is also not unrelated to factors concerning the subject of the negotiations. As a whole, initially, this fact needs to be taken into account: President Trump is an unpredictable character, and this can be bluntly seen in other political and economic contexts that he has so far addressed and the decisions he makes. This can also be true as far as negotiations with Iran are concerned. Moreover, there have been different views among Trump administration officials regarding negotiations and the possible conclusion of a deal with Iran. This has caused significant changes in Trump’s cabinet, merely within the first one hundred days of his presidency.
Mike Waltz, the White House National Security Adviser, a radical and extremist who advocates intensifying action against Iran, was politely dismissed from his job and appointed as the U.S. representative to the United Nations. Among these significant changes, it is interesting to note that Secretary of State Marco Rubio was also given the job of White House security advisor. Four decades since the Richard Nixon administration, this is unprecedented.
• This is the first time in four decades since the Nixon administration that one person has held the two powerful positions of Secretary of State and National Security Adviser in the United States. The previous instance was when Henry Kissinger held both positions. For this reason, political experts are predicting, with a touch of irony and humor, that this 53-year-old diplomat of Cuban descent could be the second Kissinger in America. With these changes, there is speculation that the Trump cabinet has become unified regarding nuclear negotiations with Iran and possibly other global issues.
• Of course, before Rubio was appointed to this position and changes were made to Trump’s cabinet, he was in close communication and negotiations with his British, French, and German counterparts.
• At the same time, it was said that the three European countries had a different path from the United States in terms of their behavior toward Iran because, based on the data, they were more focused on activating the trigger system, which, of course, did not align with Trump’s policy. The Iranian Foreign Minister was supposed to meet with the foreign ministers of the three countries in Rome last Friday, but that did not happen either.
• The question now is: with Rubio’s appointment and retention as White House National Security Adviser, can he coordinate views within the U.S. government and with its European allies on Iran?
• We should keep in mind that, due to his position in the State Department, Rubio, as White House National Security Adviser, is responsible for coordination between the State Department, the Defense Department, and other relevant intelligence, security, and government agencies in the United States. Naturally, if coordination occurs among its members, the National Security Council's proposal can serve as the basis for the President of the United States’ decisions on global issues, including negotiations and dealings with Iran. In any case, we will have to wait and see how successful Rubio can be in this regard. Of course, it remains to be seen whether Steve Witkoff will continue to be in charge of the fourth round of negotiations or whether the State Department will take a more prominent and bolder role.
• But another factor that may not be entirely within the control of the U.S. government is Israel's behavior and reaction to the Iran deal. Israel continues to insist on dismantling all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, while Rubio and possibly Trump himself want a deal similar to the 2015 JCPOA.
• Even Rubio has suggested that Iran import and buy uranium enriched to 3.65 percent from abroad. This has been rejected by the Iranian foreign minister. But Israel continues to insist on its position, and of course, this could create problems for negotiations and a possible agreement between Iran and the United States.
• Netanyahu undoubtedly does not see any deal between Iran and the United States as favorable because he believes it would mean the end of his political career.
• Now the question is: we are facing a situation that has its own complexities. First, Trump may change his mind at any moment. Second, how does Secretary of State and White House National Security Adviser Rubio, who has now apparently managed to reconcile different opinions within the U.S. government (of course, we still have to wait and see), intend to deal with someone as unpredictable as Netanyahu?
• If he is truly referred to as the second Kissinger, does Rubio have the ability and power to act like that veteran politician with realism, as Kissinger did with relations with China and Vietnam, and later with the Arabs and Israel?
• Of course, in the meantime, this is what one of Trump's advisers (who is Iranian!) said: Although Trump is a deal-maker, dealing with him is very dangerous! Now, apart from Trump's character, methods, personality, and behavior, wouldn't dealing with Trump be even more dangerous, given the factors affecting the negotiation process with Iran?
• To solve this dilemma and learn from past experiences, which have been very difficult and costly, wouldn't it be better for Trump and his colleagues to have a little flexibility in making a deal in order to achieve a balanced goal that satisfies both parties? The answer is undoubtedly yes, because one of the factors that contributed to Kissinger's success was first his realism and then his flexibility when necessary.
*A. R. Ghofrani is a former diplomat and senior international expert. The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of IRNA or the administration of President Masoud Pezeshkian.
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