Then we had the Ukraine war in 2022 and its’ consequences for Iran. After that, we have been facing the war in Gaza since October 7th 2023 that has gradually expanded into Lebanon and beyond. We need to add economic costs of the sanctions that have accumulated since Trump withdrew from JCPOA in 2018.
Pezeshkian began his Job with the assassination of Mr. Haniya, Hamas political leader, in Tehran the day after his inauguration, and assassination of Seyed Hassan Nasrolah, after Pezeshkian came back from New York.
This is the social, political, economic and military contexts before Pezeshkian won the presidential election after the death of President Raisi in a helicopter crash. During the past 40 years, no president in Iran has been faced with more severe challenges. How are Pezeshkian and his administration going to deal with these challenges?
First let’s take a look at his background and his administration. Pezeshkian, coming from a Kurdish-Azari family, studied medicine, engaged in defense efforts in the Iraqi war against Iran, was in President Mohammad Khatami’s reformist administration as a minister of health, and then served as a parliamentarian. He has been engaged in Iranian domestic politics during the past four decades and know Iran’s domestic politics very well.
He has a scientific background and as a scientist, facts and figures are more important to him than ideology. Consequently, he has tried to include more experts in his administration than ideologues. His administration includes more technocrats than previous ones. It has strengthened the role of rationality and experience on the new administration’s decision-making. Analysis of his remarks during the past few months demonstrate that he believes in peace, stability, diplomacy and development.
Mitigating and solving the economic problems are his main priority and to do that he is trying to create a more peaceful situation both at home and abroad. As a result, both domestic and foreign policy are shifting more toward moderate forces. Even during the late President Raisi’s tenure, I found that he was more realist than many had expected. The main priorities of the new government are national unity and reconciliation, economic development, regional peace and stability, constructive relations with the world, continuing cooperation with China and Russia, improving relations with the EU and managing tensions with the US.
Pezeshkian has called his administration a “national reconciliation administration” and has tried to include and engage with different political forces (reformists, principalists and moderates). He has already achieved the support of the Supreme Leader. In a meeting recently held with the representatives of the Iranian parliament, the Supreme Leader emphasized that “the success of the president is the success of all of us” and asked for cooperation and coordination between all branches of power (presidency, the judiciary and the legislative) to solve economic, social and political problems facing the country. By emphasizing on national reconciliation, he tries to build a strong basis for his administration, to be able to push forward his political and economic approach at home and abroad.
In recent years, Iran’s national security has been affected by some new challenges in three different areas, including issues of social unrest, sectarian and ethnic divisions. Social unrest increased sharply after the death of Mahsa Amini two year ago. After Pezeshkian began his presidency, social tranquility has visibly increased. As far as he is coming from two minority backgrounds (Kurdish-Azari), his election and appointments may decrease ethnic tensions and it can contribute a lot to national reconciliation. The third domestic challenge that has increased in recent years is related to sectarian divisions. By appointing more officials from minorities, he is trying to solve this problem or at lease decrease the dimensions of the challenge.
Economic improvement is the first priority of the new government. Pezeshkian has clearly mentioned that to achieve an 8% economic growth, we need some $200 billion in investment and spending. At Best 50% of this can be gained at home and for the rest we need to improve our relations with the world... It is impossible to have economic growth with “closed borders”. We need to solve our problems with neighbors and the world.
As far as economic problems are the most important ones and it is the main priority of the new administration, the economic team working for the government is highly important. The current economic team seems to have a positive outlook and its members are mainly experienced technocrats with long-term experiences in their fields. In comparison to previous administration, they are among the best available ones. The main figures among them are Abdolnasser Hemati, who is the minister of economy, and Ali Tayebnia, the economic advisor to the president. It is believed that the economic team is going to be led by Tayebnia. They mostly believe in market economy, however, they have to meet three important targets together: poverty reduction, controlling inflation, and economic growth. It is a difficult job. This makes the role of foreign policy team very important.
Pezeshkian’s foreign policy team is comprised of well-known people, because many of them are members of the team who represented Iran in JCPOA negotiations. Abbas Araqchi as foreign minister and Majid Takht Ravanchi as his political deputy, believe in diplomacy and conflict resolution in the region. Their main target is to contribute to a peaceful situation for economic growth. It is highly difficult to predict their chance of success under current situation that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to expand the Palestinian war, and drag Iran and the US into conflict. Pezeshkian and Araqchi’s positions and meetings in recent months have demonstrated that they are trying to manage ongoing conflicts in Palestine and Lebanon while seeking to prevent it from going out of control.
When it comes to the orientation of Iran’s foreign policy, there are two main camps among Iranian foreign and security policy experts: Those who believe and support a balanced approach towards the East and the West and those who support the East against the West. Pezeshkian and his team mostly believe in the first and support constructive interaction and cooperation with important players as a necessity to solve domestic problems and to bring peace and stability to the war-torn and conflict-damaged West Asian region.
It seems to me that formidable challenges facing the country have led to a sense of unity and have caused different internal political forces to gather behind the flag. This has encouraged many political forces to support and cooperate with the new government. This atmosphere has helped Pezeshkian to include a relatively strong political, economic and foreign policy team in his administration.
In general, Pezeshkian’s administration is facing severe domestic, regional and international challenges. However, members of his administration are experienced, rational, pragmatic and realist and have at present both the support of society and the system. The situation could endure if they can demonstrate some short-term success. My evaluation is that the new administration can manage and mitigate ongoing challenges and problems. This is a good opportunity to empower, invigorate and rejuvenate both the system and the society to solve old problems.
* Nabil Sonboli is a political analyst working for the Tehran-based Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS).
** Views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Islamic Republic News Agency.
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