According to the research, the true death toll from the war could reach over 186,000 people, far exceeding the official count reported by Gaza's Ministry of Health.
While the official death toll stands at nearly 38,300 Palestinians killed since the start of the genocidal war on October 7, the researchers argue that this figure fails to take into account the indirect deaths caused by factors such as the collapse of the health and other critical infrastructure.
“Even if the conflict ends immediately, there will continue to be many indirect deaths in the coming months and years from causes such as reproductive, communicable, and non-communicable diseases,” they write.
They point to the destruction of health facilities, food distribution systems, and other public infrastructure as key drivers of these indirect fatalities in Gaza. The study's authors also emphasize the immense challenges in accurately counting the death toll as many bodies are buried in mass graves or trapped under the rubble.
Drawing on data from previous conflicts, the researchers estimate that for every direct death reported, there could be as many as 15 additional indirect deaths. Applying this ratio to the war in Gaza, they conclude that "it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186,000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict."
That would represent almost 8% of Gaza's pre-war population of 2.3 million people.
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