Sep 1, 2021, 11:32 AM
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The future of governance in Afghanistan

Tehran, IRNA - With the Taliban taking control of most parts of Afghanistan and the humiliating and irresponsible departure of the US occupiers from Afghanistan, regional and world analysts are now turning their attention to the future of Afghanistan and the type of system of government in this country.

In this regard, some possible scenarios for the future of Afghanistan have been discussed and evaluated.


The first scenario is to maintain the current government, in other words, to maintain the government of Ashraf Ghani, which seems very unlikely and the probability is close to zero. Ashraf Ghani's government was weak, dependent on the United States, inefficient, and unpopular.

The people were dissatisfied with this government and are happy with its fall. The Taliban, which has come to power through military force alongside a peaceful approach, will no longer consent to the return of Ashraf Ghani or members of his government like Amrullah Saleh.


The second scenario is the disintegration of Afghanistan and the formation of two Pashtun and non-Pashtun regions.

This scenario is also unlikely due to the dispersal of ethnic groups in different parts of Afghanistan and the lack of interest of the people in violating the integrity of the country. According to Taliban officials, the group does not have such a plan on its agenda.


The third scenario is the failure of inter-Afghan talks and the failure of the Taliban to reach an agreement with other ethnic groups and the outbreak of a failed civil war.

The probability of this scenario happening is not strong either. The people of Afghanistan of all ethnicities and tribes, after many years of war and enduring the US and NATO occupiers, want security in Afghanistan and will not accept the continuation of civil wars.

The Taliban also seek to maintain their current power and position and gain domestic acceptance and foreign legitimacy, and are therefore not interested in entering into internal conflicts.

Taliban officials will try to show a peaceful approach and avoid a civil war by negotiating with various groups while demonstrating their military authority.


The fourth and most likely scenario is the formation of a transitional council or interim government headed by a senior Taliban official to run the country.

The Taliban do not accept Afghanistan's constitution today, so the interim government will seek to add amendments to the law or draft a new constitution.

If the amended or new constitution is approved by the people in a referendum, the next steps can be taken.

In this context, inter-Afghan negotiations may continue with the aim of sharing power between the Taliban and other influential ethnic groups, and the possibility of forming an inclusive government with the presence of all ethnic groups is possible.


Implementing the fourth scenario could end years of insecurity and war in Afghanistan and gradually bring stability and calm to the country.

The formation of an inclusive government consisting of all religions, ethnicities and different political forces will be a stabilizing step and supported by Afghanistan's neighbors and friends, including the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The realization of this scenario, if accompanied by the support of the people, will create internal acceptance for the inclusive government and pave the way for regional and international legitimacy.


Of course, given the Taliban's totalitarian approach, an inclusive government may not be easy. In this case, the role of mediating countries such as Iran, Russia, China, India and Pakistan will be important to create an inclusive government.

The Taliban must be made aware that the continuation of the totalitarian approach and disregard for the rights of other ethnic groups will lead to the dissatisfaction of the Afghan people and make it difficult for the neighbors and the international community to recognize the new government.


All influential elements inside and outside Afghanistan must work to prevent the country from becoming embroiled in civil war again, as this will increase the space for terrorist groups such as ISIS and other US regional allies to destabilize the country.

By Mohsen Pakaein

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