Jun 7, 2021, 10:14 AM
Journalist ID: 1842
News Code: 84356642
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Scenarios for future of JCPOA

Tehran, June 7, IRNA - The co-occurrence of the Vienna talks on the revival of Iran's nuclear agreement and the presidential election in this country has created a specific situation that may bring up one of three possible scenarios for the path ahead.

At the same time that the International Atomic Energy Agency has expressed concern about the increase of Iranian uranium stockpile and the sixth round of the Joint Commission meetings on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is underway in Vienna, Austria, to pave the way for the revival of the nuclear deal, campaigns of presidential candidates have been heated inside Iran.

The revival of JCPOA before election

One of the main scenarios is that the Vienna talks would bear fruit and all parties involved in the negotiations would reach an agreement to revive the deal before June 18 presidential election. Then, the P5+1 group (the US, the UK, France, Russia, China plush Germany) and Iran have about two months to come back to the normal situation before the United States' withdrawal from the agreement. That means Washington lifts all nuclear-related sanctions and Iran scales back all measures that is in line with reducing its commitments under the JCPOA.

Thus, the next president in Iran would face an agreement that is binding. Since foreign policy issues are not decided by the administration alone, but by the system of the Islamic Republic, the next head of the executive branch should accept and implement possible return to the nuclear accord. The scenario is more likely.

The revival of JCPOA after election in Rouhani's administration

The second scenario can be lack of agreement on remaining issues before the presidential election in Iran, but it is possible that the parties can strike a deal before the next administration takes power. Given the fact that there are technical issues as well as political and legal complications, the parties may not achieve any deal until June 18.

However, the results of the presidential election may push the other side to speed up negotiations and both parties reach an agreement before the next president takes power. The administration of President Hassan Rouhani probably wants to finalize the negotiations in Vienna in order to show his government was able to nullify the effect of the so-called maximum pressure and revive the JCPOA before handing over power.

The revival of JCPOA after election in next administration 

The third scenario tells us that the process of negotiations will take time and the current Iranian administration cannot reach a deal with other signatories to the JCPOA. According this scenario, no changes will take place in Iran's foreign policy. Since, the next administration is expected to change the negotiating team, the country's stance on the revival of the JCPOA can make the situation harder for the other side to strike a deal with the next government. Although, there is a possibility that the new administration tries to reach a deal in order to gain an achievement at the beginning of its tenure and pave the way for lifting of sanctions and resolve economic woes.

To sum up, the first scenario seems to be the most feasible one. If not, the second scenario can be logic, because procrastinated negotiation can make it difficult for all sides to revive the deal.

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