In an interview with the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) on Saturday, Ali Bigdeli, referred to the events that followed the shot down of the American spy drone, downing the American drone was a blow to the US military and to showcase the missile power of Iran, but to a large extent, the United States is not willing to enter a phase of military confrontation with Iran.
He went on to say that "Americans do not need a reason to attack a country, but for starting a war they are looking for a pretext and tell lies, just as they raised a lie about the existence of weapons of mass destruction to attack Iraq. If Trump wanted to attack Iran, he could have done so earlier on the pretext of the attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf.
New war will shake Trump social base
The expert stated that the US Congress strongly opposes the start of a new war, saying that there is no consensus within the structure of the American political system towards Iran. Although some groups in the political structure of America are demanding a limited war with Iran, Democrats and Congress are opposed to the war against Iran.
Expressing that the main obstacle for Trump in this regard is the internal affairs of the United States, Bigdeli stated, "Trump was elected with the slogan of opposition to new war and criticizing the attacks on Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, in the run-up to the 2020 US presidential election, supporters and voters will not allow him to wage war and the new war will shake the social and Trump ratings."
War will trigger a crisis in the American economy
The professor highlighted that one of the factors that Trump is investing heavily on it, is the current economic situation in America which is much better than the past few decades. War with Iran may cause crisis in America's economy and create economic disturbance for Americans that these issues could hurt Trump's position in the 2020 election.
The expert reiterated the other thing is that although Trump cannot go to war with Iran, but cannot be silent to this problem and leave unanswered. Leaving unanswered Iran’s actions would change the balance of power in the Middle East, the rise of Iranian power, and the frustration of the US regional allies from Trump, but he will not easily enter the game, its fate would be unclear for him.”
Trump is controlled by Pentagon, senior Republican figures
Bigdeli said that the management of the White House is not ready for war, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have paid a lot of money to bring Trump to war with Iran. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton also make a lot of efforts that the US will have at least a limited number of attacks on Iran, but despite the lack of political analysis and diplomatic prudence, Trump is severally fearful of the aftermath of the war on Iran in the domestic arena, and in addition, senior Pentagon experts and Republican figures are controlling him not to take suicidal measure.
He highlighted that Trump wants to resolve Iran's issue in another way. That is why he raises the issue of negotiating with Iran. On the other hand, Trump will add to the severity of sanctions and pressures on Iran, in order to force Tehran to engage in dialogue with Washington, but the point is that Iran should not close the door to negotiations and diplomacy, because then the puzzle of the equations in the Middle East will be more complex than now.
Emphasizing that countries should use all their means in power and not just rely on a single dimension, Analyst of foreign policy affairs said, "Iran has shown its missile power in confrontation with the US drone violating Iran's airspace, and it can mean Iran's defense capability is at its peak, but we have another strength in terms of soft power and diplomacy. This adventure will make us more capable in the possible negotiations, and we can get more concessions.”
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