North Korea breakthrough, a plus for Iran Deal

Lest we forget, May is also the month when US President Donald Trump is due to either re-certify the Iran nuclear deal or exit from it, in light of his recent ultimatum of 'fix it or nix it,' and, logically speaking, it would be quite awkward for US diplomacy to try to convince North Koreans to trust the US if, at the same time, they have been blemished for betraying their commitments under the Iran nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Indeed, this is something that even the US negotiators, including John Kerry and Wendy Sherman, have repeatedly stated, that is, the blow to US's credibility and the ensuing mistrust of US if the US unilaterally withdraws from the JCPOA. Consequently, we can safely assume an indirect windfall for the (presently endangered) JCPOA no matter what the eventual outcome of the approaching US-North Korea summit. In all likelihood, this summit will not be a one-shot deal but rather the beginning of a potentially long diplomatic process that may or may not yield any positive outcome. At the moment, the gaps between the two sides is rather considerable, with North Korea insisting on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, whereas the US insists on focusing on Pyongyang's nukes only.

Thus, while there is no direct connection between the two issues, clearly there are both positive and negative linkages that may surface in the near future. While on the negative side, a US's exit from the JCPOA will harm its credibility at the Korean negotiation table, on the other hand the sustained US implementation of its obligations under the JCPOA in effect enhances US's diplomatic hands and, perhaps, its ability to push for an 'Iran-style' deal, by showcasing the dividend of 'smart diplomacy' that can be replicated with respect to North Korea.

Of course, given the US's addiction to coercive diplomacy, there is also the other possibility that the White House may try to use its scuttling of the Iran deal to drive the point that it is not in a compromising mood. Given the chaotic policy environment in Washington under Donald Trump nowadays, featuring a tremendous amount of ad hoc policies and self-reversals within a short time span, indeed hardly anything is surprising coming from this US administration and, therefore, one can only speculate, and hope, that rational decision-making will improve in the US and, with it, the chances of survival of the JCPOA, which is presently an endangered species and on the verge of extinction, despite its merits as a 'win-win' for all the parties concerned including the US and its own national interests, in light of the admission by various top US officials including the Defense Secretary Mattis and Secretary of State Tillerson that the JCPOA serves US's national security interests.

Unfortunately, despite such admissions, the Trump administration continues to push for amending the JCPOA according to its arbitrary wish list that operate in a vacuum of international law and are not backed by any legal or nuclear standards, which is basically the reason why the US's diplomacy with the Europeans and others in this regard has failed to gain traction.

But, the dawn of a new chapter in US-North Korean nuclear diplomacy may serve as a timely jolt to the Americans regarding the protean value of the JCPOA as they sit down with their Korean adversaries to negotiate a non-proliferation agreement, which is why as stated above it is ground for guarded optimism that the US will remain in the nuclear accord no matter what the personal dislike of the US president. To do otherwise, and unilaterally withdraw, will cause multiple harms to US's interests, including its Korean strategy.

*Kaveh L. Afrasiabi is a political scientist and author of several books.

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