Commenting on Pakistan’s developments and their impact on bilateral ties with the neighboring Islamic Republic, international affairs expert Hanif Ghafari told Iran Daily he is convinced that the two sides would move toward managing their relations instead of tensions.
Full text of the interview follows:
IRAN DAILY: Imran Khan failed to finish his term in office and was ousted. What were the main reasons for his ouster?
HANIF GHAFARI: Pakistan’s political atmosphere and structure have been formed in a way which normally prevents senior executive officials from finishing their terms. Prior to Khan, all 21 other Pakistani PMs had also been ousted on different grounds.
Perhaps, on the surface, Khan’s removal appears to be the Pakistani Parliament’s decision and an outcome of a democratic process. However, his dismissal was an instance of a soft coup, although the military did not play a direct role in it.
In addition to internal factors, U.S. officials, particularly Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Donald Lu, and Saudi Arabia’s behind-the-scenes support played an undeniable role in Khan’s ouster.
What were the reasons for the differences between the Americans and Imran Khan?
There were two reasons. The first reason is that in the aftermath of the troop withdrawal by the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) from Afghanistan, Khan turned into a main supporter of the caretaker Taliban government and even repeatedly called on the international community to recognize the group. This came as the United States expected Pakistan, as Afghanistan’s neighbor, to put its security and intelligence capacities at its disposal, enabling Washington to retain its dominance over Kabul through Islamabad’s channel, a demand to which Khan refrained from acquiescing. The reason for Khan’s opposition had roots in the September 11, 2001, incident and the relations established in its aftermath between the U.S. security and government forces and the then Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf’s administration.
The second reason pertains to Pakistan’s geopolitical position and neighborly ties with Iran and China. The United States has designed a political project for controlling Iran and China, the implementation of which is in need of a significant role by a regional player such as Pakistan. A government at the helm in Pakistan that allows for Washington’s geopolitical measures and indirect pressures against neighboring countries will guarantee the continuation of regional tensions against Iran and China, which is exactly what Washington expected of Khan. This came as, under Khan, relations among Pakistan, Iran and China developed in a way totally in contradiction with the U.S. policy of interference in the region through Islamabad.
In addition, Saudi Arabia was the first country to congratulate Sharif’s election, which is a sign of Riyadh’s behind-the-scenes support for Khan’s ouster. For instance, Saudi Arabia has a great influence on the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, a Sunni political party in Pakistan, which voted for Khan’s removal.
The developments have unfolded in a way allowing a coalition of Iran’s rivals and opponents to have the upper hand in Pakistan. What approach would Sharif’s government adopt toward Tehran?
I do not forecast any tension in bilateral ties. Previous Pakistani governments that had friendly relations with the United States normally refrained from creating a continuous regional tension vis-à-vis Iran and, thus, always sought to manage ties with the Islamic Republic.
Nevertheless, under the incumbent government, covert relations between Pakistan and the United States would not develop in a way to impede the implementation of Washington’s certain regional plans. There will be significant differences between Khan’s Pakistan and that of Sharif.
Under such circumstances, Iran would also develop its relations with Pakistan on the basis of the principle of good neighborliness, seeking to manage ties in a way to give greater weight to the two main factors of caution and foresight. Thus, tensions in Iran-Pakistan ties would be highly unlikely.
Security and economic issues are two main pivots of Iran-Pakistan relations. The two countries are implementing joint projects, such as developing Chabahar port and reviving the Silk Road. Are political developments going to impact bilateral economic ties?
Experience has shown that despite the Pakistani government’s security approaches and their links with the United States, they have never sought to create a regional or economic tension that would be detrimental to their common interests with Iran. The incumbent Pakistani government does not seem to be an exception. In addition, India should not be overlooked as a main factor shaping Iran-Pakistan relations. Pakistan has always seen Iran as a country regulating relations between Islamabad and New Delhi under critical circumstances.
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