Speaking to IRNA correspondent in New York, Cafiero said that Qatar and Iran have long maintained a pragmatic relationship, even if Doha and Tehran have disagreed on certain regional issues such as the Syrian conflict.
If Doha can continue with partnership with Iran, which strengthened significantly as a consequence of the Saudi-UAE blockade on Qatar, while also reconciling with Saudi Arabia, the Qataris will find themselves under significantly less pressure, he said.
The analyst said that the Saudis have made their decision on Qatar mostly due to the fact that President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will be taking the helm in Washington later this month.
“In Saudi Arabia there are concerns about Trump’s successor being harsher toward Riyadh due to various issues from the Khashoggi murder to the imprisonment of human rights activists and the unresolved Yemeni conflict,” Cafiero said, adding, “Within this context, the Saudis taking steps to demonstrate their commitment to re-normalization of relations with Doha can send a message to Biden’s administration that could earn the leadership in Riyadh some goodwill with the 46th American president and those in his inner circle.”
He said that ultimately, the Saudis realized that efforts to pressure Doha into changing fundamental aspects of its foreign policy had proven futile.
There is a good chance that Biden’s administration will put pressure on all the blockading states to take further action toward resolution of the PGCC crisis, the analyst said.
Had Trump secured a second term, it is doubtful that the Saudis would have agreed to these confidence building measures this month, Cafiero stated.
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