Trump's slogans at the inauguration ceremony showed that, like in his first term as president, he would not be able to create a way of governing America that could stop the country's decline. With his first statements, Trump showed that he did not recognize the new developments in the world and intended to call the world to fight to restore American hegemony and replace rationalism with belligerence.
Attention to the following axes will clarify the path of the Trump administration's ongoing conflicts.
1- Neighborly Harassment
Trump's words about increasing pressure on Mexico, Canada, and Panama showed that "Neighborly Harassment" will be one of the main axes of US foreign policy. Trump's strongest belligerent approach against Mexico was focused on three factors: trade, illegal immigration, and security issues. In the trade area, Trump wants to impose tariffs on Mexican goods imported to the United States from February 1; in fact, he will start an economic war with Mexico. The White House is also set to intensify its approach to confronting the arrival of Mexican immigrants by declaring a national emergency on the southern border with Mexico and sending the army to that area, and to carry out an unprecedented operation to expel millions of Mexican immigrants at home. In the security area, Trump will narrow the field for Mexico under the pretext of confronting drug cartels and will move towards dominating the Gulf of Mexico with this pretext. These moves will certainly face serious challenges in Washington-Mexico City relations during Trump's second term and will make the Mexican government determined to defend its territorial integrity and national sovereignty. Trump's statements against America's other neighbor showed that he is seeking to reclaim the Panama Canal and control over Greenland. The United States took responsibility for building the canal in the early 20th century and has not had the right to violate the country's territorial integrity since the 1970s, when it handed over full control of it to Panama under a treaty. Trump says the Panamanian government has not fulfilled its obligations to the canal and has placed the waterway in the path of China's interests. China is the second largest user of the Panama Canal after the United States and has major economic investments in the country.
Trump's threat to annex Canada to the United States and launch a trade war with Ottawa by imposing a 25 percent tariff on Canadian products is another form of Trump's belligerent approach to neighbors. The occupation of Canada, which has a record in American history, would put both countries in difficult situations if it were repeated during Trump's term.
2- Anti- International standards
Trump, like his first term in office, in opposition to international standards, announced that he would withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, which he believes is a fraud, and also signed an executive order to withdraw from the World Health Organization. Trump, who is in a record of disobedience and a pioneer in violating international standards and regulations, also officially withdrew from the "Pacific Trade Agreement", the "UN Migration Agreement", the "Paris Climate Agreement", the "UN Human Rights Commission", "UNESCO", the "Iran Nuclear Agreement with the P5+1 Group" in his previous term of office. Trump pursued the discrediting of international trade institutions, even the World Trade Organization, and disrupted the idea of free trade by imposing unilateral tariffs. To serve Israel's interests, he ignored UN resolutions and moved the US embassy to Jerusalem. Trump pursued the grand deal of the century, which included annexing the West Bank to the Zionist regime, and unilaterally recognized the Golan Heights as belonging to Israel. The continuation of international hostility during Trump's second term will further isolate the country in the world.
3- Conflict with allies
In conflict with European allies, Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on the European Union and declared, "The European Union is treating us very badly, and so they will face tariffs. This is the only way we can achieve justice."
In turn, the President of the European Commission warned at the Davos summit about the consequences of a trade war, and German Chancellor Schulz said, "Europe should not subordinate itself to American policies." To maintain power and move towards becoming a hegemon, the United States needs more allies, especially in Europe, but Trump's anti-European approach is causing European allies to adopt anti-American policies.
Trump's policies during his previous presidency led to many European countries becoming more inclined towards China, and the United States lost the power to create a consensus in its favor in the field of international competition. This situation could be repeated in Trump's second term.
4- Conflict with competitors
In his statements, Trump said that the tariffs he imposed on China during his first presidency are still in place and that his administration is considering imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. He cited the reason for imposing tariffs on Chinese goods as the shipment of the morphine-like drug fentanyl from China to the United States through Mexico and Canada.
Trump's main concern is the creation of a new order based on multilateralism in the world, including the rise of regional institutions such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, the Eurasian Union, and the Latin American Union.
Today, Europe has opened its markets to Chinese electric cars and green technology, and the Chinese have set up factories across Europe. In the new Trump era, given the belligerent approaches in foreign policy,
America is becoming more integrated with the Chinese economy, and its consequences will haunt the White House for years to come.
Although Trump tried to portray Biden and the Democrats as the main cause of America’s decline during his inauguration, his admission of this decline indicates that, given the primacy of national sovereignty, America’s hegemony is irreversible and the world does not welcome America’s unilateralism. America was on the path of decline more than ever during Trump’s first term as president, and given Trump’s unilateralist and belligerent policies, America’s decline will accelerate, and the future of globalization will be without a hegemon.
(The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of IRNA or the administration of President Masoud Pezeshkian.)
Your Comment