If Trump wants to fulfill his election promises and prioritize solving America’s domestic problems by leading the United States on the path of “powerful isolation,” he must stay away from West Asian issues, which may be a new quagmire for the White House, and seek to manage the crisis with low-cost tactics. Many Western experts believe that with Netanyahu, America’s interests in West Asia will not be secured, and the cost of supporting a prime minister who is on the verge of arrest on charges of genocide by the International Criminal Court in The Hague will be very high for the United States. In addition, Netanyahu, as the main opponent of implementing the two-state plan in the occupied territories, has stood against the United Nations’ decision, which was supported by the West and Israel’s former allies, and this approach by the Israeli prime minister cannot please Trump.
Netanyahu’s extreme unpopularity in public opinion around the world, especially in the United States, and the public demand for his trial and punishment are also the reasons the Trump administration has been seriously hesitant to continue supporting this criminal prime minister. If Trump wants to focus on foreign issues such as the war in Ukraine, economic competition with China, managing Europe’s behavior, and containing Iran, in addition to looking inward, he cannot devote much energy to solving the Israeli crisis. Given these issues, the possibility of the Trump administration introducing Netanyahu as the main culprit and eliminating him, and then trying to calm the crisis in Israel, has become stronger. If the Trump administration wants to restore the prestige lost by the United States due to supporting the genocide in Gaza, it has no choice but to introduce the Biden administration as the main culprit of these events and manage the crisis by eliminating the perpetrator of the crime. Of course, there is no conclusion yet on the physical or political elimination of Netanyahu, but there is a consensus among international relations experts that Trump will face new problems by keeping Netanyahu, but eliminating the Israeli prime minister can provide opportunities to strengthen the US presence in West Asia.
On the other hand, although “Ahmad al-Sharaa,” nicknamed Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the commander of the Syrian “Military Operations Department” and the leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, is trying to convince people to make tangible changes in his previous behavior and views through democratic gestures and appearances among journalists and in front of cameras, the possibility of his removal after the transition of power in Syria is also conceivable. Al-Julani, who has a history of commanding the terrorist groups Al-Qaeda, ISIS, and Al-Nusra on his record, and for whom Washington had even set a $10 million reward for information leading to his arrest, is currently losing favor with the US State Department and is boasting that he has been trusted by Washington.
At the same time, there is the idea that the US intelligence agency, after negotiating with Al-Julani in the Bukai prison in Iraq and encouraging him to form a network and plan to seize Damascus, will say goodbye to him after the transition of power in Syria and free itself from the burden of supporting a known terrorist. The US, which has experience in forming the Taliban in Afghanistan and ISIS and Al-Qaeda in the Levant, is concerned that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, like them, may at times disobey Washington’s orders. In addition, the White House considers the existence of an Islamist group near Israel’s borders to be a high risk and is looking for a secular group that is inclined towards the Zionist regime to establish itself in Damascus. Perhaps one of the American options is Mazloum Abdi, the commander-in-chief of the Syrian Democratic Forces, which currently controls about a quarter of Syria’s territory. Today, Netanyahu is more concerned and al-Julani is less concerned about the steps to their elimination, and despite their triumphant gestures, they cannot hide their concern about Trump’s unpredictable decisions.
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