In analyzing the situation, several key points can be outlined:
1. Azerbaijan's move to reclaim Nagorno-Karabakh was expected, given various recent developments. The tragic killing of four officers from the Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Azerbaijan only expedited this process. Following the 44-day war and the signing of the armistice agreement with Armenia in Moscow in 2020, Baku, in coordination with Turkey, aimed to open the Zangzor crossing to reach Nakhchivan through Sivnik Province in Armenia. However, due to regional opposition, including Iran's firm stance against altering international borders, they deprioritized opening the Sionik crossing and instead focused on the recent weeks' efforts to liberate Karabakh. The gradual blockage of the Lachin Pass, connecting Armenia to Karabakh, and the provision of food and health aid from the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan to the people of Karabakh indicated Baku's determination to finalize its incomplete objectives from the 44-day war and maintain its territorial integrity.
2. The strained relationship between Armenia and Russia, alongside a ten-day joint military exercise between Armenia and the United States, causing Russia's displeasure with Pashinyan, led Azerbaijan to seize this opportunity to escalate pressure for Nagorno-Karabakh's liberation. Armenia's significant error was that Nikol Pashinyan, beyond stating that dependence on Russia is a strategic mistake, publicly declared a shift towards the West. This stance, coupled with Russia's displeasure and the West's support, conveyed Armenia's indifference towards Russia. Günther Flinger, the head of the European Committee for NATO expansion, indicating Armenia's potential alliance entry, reflected America and Europe's aim to isolate Russia in the Caucasus and potentially replicate a situation akin to Ukraine for Moscow through Armenia. In a recent speech at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russian President Putin justified his disinterest in engaging with the Karabakh issue, stating that the Armenian leadership essentially recognized Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Karabakh. Putin's statement gave Azerbaijan the green light to pursue its objectives in Karabakh, albeit expressing hope for a cautious approach and avoiding ethnic cleansing during this liberation process.
3. The conduct of elections in the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Armenia, resulting in the election of "Shamoul Shahramanian" as the successor to "Arayik Harotunyan" and the head of the self-declared government of Nagorno-Karabakh, constituted another provocative action that set the stage for Azerbaijan's initiative. Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally acknowledged as part of the Republic of Azerbaijan, making it evident that these elections were deemed unacceptable by the global community. Countries within the region, including Iran, Russia, Turkey, and even the European Union, expressed opposition to these elections. Nabileh Masrali, the spokesperson of the European Union, explicitly stated, "The European Union does not recognize the elections." It is plausible that these elections were held without coordination with the Armenian government.
4. It seems that the decision to initiate the attack on Nagorno-Karabakh was made independently by the Republic of Azerbaijan, without consulting Turkey. Ankara typically regards the endeavor to open the Sivnik crossing as a crucial step for Karabakh's liberation, and by encouraging Azerbaijan to seize control of Sivnik, it aimed to use this route to reach the Caspian Sea. Another significant aspect is the Republic of Azerbaijan's effort to secure a route through Iran to reach Nakhchivan, emphasizing this by constructing a railway—an emerging development in this ongoing process. Ankara may not favor this route diversion from Azerbaijan. Moreover, Yerevan's recent statement indicating that the normalization of relations with Turkey won't hinge on negotiations with Azerbaijan underscores Yerevan's intent to leverage the divide between Baku and Ankara.
5. The position of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has consistently revolved around the need to uphold the territorial integrity of both Azerbaijan and Armenia, preserving international borders' inviolability, and safeguarding the rights of Armenians. Building on this foundation, the Islamic Republic of Iran views Sivnik province as part of Armenia's territorial integrity, while Nagorno-Karabakh is seen within the territorial integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan. In this crucial moment, Iran can actively and effectively contribute, aligning with its logical principles, to broker a ceasefire between the neighboring nations and facilitate the peaceful return of Karabakh to Azerbaijan, ensuring the security of the Armenian minority.
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