Jul 18, 2023, 6:40 PM
News ID: 85173956
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By Mohsen Pakaein

Why the war of attrition in Ukraine will drag on

Jul 18, 2023, 6:40 PM
News ID: 85173956
Why the war of attrition in Ukraine will drag on

Tehran, IRNA - In a meeting with religious scholars and students of the Islamic seminaries on July 12, 2023, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, explained that the current state of the poor, helpless Ukrainian nation shows that the colonialism and predatory motives of the West are continuing.

"The people of Ukraine are being killed because the interests of the companies that produce and sell arms in the West lie in the continuation of the war in Ukraine," the Supreme Leader said.

The withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan, the establishment of stability in Iraq, the destruction of a large part of the Takfiri terrorist groups in Syria, and the prospect of establishing a ceasefire in Yemen created a dent in the arms market. To counter this stagnation, the idea of initiating a new war was raised. During this process, the West turned its attention to Ukraine, which presented more favorable conditions. The promise of NATO's support to Zelenski and the provocation of Russia with intelligence, media, and political tools led to the Russian attack on Ukraine, an event that proved beneficial to Western arms production and sales companies.

Following the war in Ukraine, the sale of military weapons by the United States and Western countries increased sharply. Many experts believe that one of the goals of this war, along with weakening Russia, was to lay the groundwork for the revival of the arms market.

In recent days, the world's seven industrialized countries committed to sending $1.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine at their meeting in Lithuania (July 22). This amount is paid in the form of so-called military aid to large arms manufacturing companies in order to export western weapons to Ukraine and prolong the war. Following this decision, Germany announced that it will soon deliver €700 million of weapons, including tanks, Patriot missiles, and armored vehicles to Ukraine. France also announced sending long-range "Scalp" missiles. A coalition of 11 countries, including Denmark and the Netherlands, also announced that they will start training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters.

Additionally, the Norwegian government stated that it will send very small drones, air defense systems, and food to Ukraine this year. The US, the largest arms seller to Kyiv, will also receive a major part of these $1.5 billion arms sales to Ukraine. By the end of 2022, the arms manufacturing companies in the United States had sold about $20 billion of arms to Ukraine, which is about twice the amount that the United States sent to 12 other destinations in 2021, including Afghanistan ($4.1 billion), Israel ($3.3 billion), and Egypt ($1.3 billion).

Liberal democrats, who consider themselves supporters of peace and human rights, have described the sale of arms to Ukraine as “assistance” and fulfillment of security obligations, while the continuation of the war has had no result other than insecurity, destruction, and killing of people.

"Some of the weapons on offer are so sophisticated that the Ukrainian military is not trained in how to use them," said Hannah Homestead, a policy analyst at the Center for International Policy, which focuses on the impact of the US arms trade around the world.

Statistics show that after the start of the war in Ukraine, the market value of the arms company Raytheon Technology increased from $128 billion to $155 billion at the beginning of 2022. The arms company Lockheed Martin started the year 2022 with a value of $98 billion, and by the end of the year, this figure reached a record $127 billion. Lockheed Martin is the company that produces "Hamiars" missiles. Northrop Grumman began 2022 with $61 billion and ended with $84 billion.

Perhaps that is why, in order to reduce dependence on American weapons, from the end of February 2022, members of the European Union pledged to increase their arsenals by hundreds of billions of dollars, and Germany alone plans to modernize its army at the rate of $100 billion per year. In this regard, German arms manufacturer "Rheinmetall" recorded its highest income in May, witnessing a 27% increase in profit and a 55% increase in shares in one year.

Before the Ukraine war, Russia was the second-largest arms exporter, but the relative stagnation of the defense industry and the significant decrease in Moscow's arms sales allowed NATO members to take over Russia's share of the arms market. France is now desperately trying to replace Russia as a supplier and become the main manufacturer of weapons for the world market, including India. The US has also targeted India's lucrative import market.

The war in Ukraine is deadly, destructive, and costly, but it is very profitable for Western arms companies. For this reason, the war is expected to continue as long as arms sales to Ukraine remain lucrative. Zelenski is determined to defeat Russia and take back territories controlled by Moscow, including Crimea, which is exactly what the arms dealers want.

The human toll, financial burden, and damage to dignity are substantial, making Russia reluctant to cease the war without retaining 20% of Ukraine's territory currently under its control. Today, the transformation of the war in Ukraine into a long-term war of attrition is part of the plan of the arms-selling countries, and as such, no significant plan will be presented by the West for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, we should not wait for peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, and as the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution said, "The interests of the companies that produce and sell arms in the West lie in the continuation of the war in Ukraine."

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