Jan 6, 2022, 5:24 PM
Journalist ID: 1842
News Code: 84604669
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2022 and the events ahead

Tehran, IRNA - The year 2022 has begun. This year can witness important events in the world including in West Asia, some of which are discussed in this memo.

West Asia in 2022 will see the consolidation of the sovereignty of countries that have suffered for years from US and European intervention in their country, as well as the ominous phenomenon of terrorism. Syria is experiencing international legitimacy and domestic acceptance after the third parliamentary elections and the army's control over key parts of southern Adlib. In 2022, the desire of Arab countries to improve relations with Syria, which began with the visit of a senior Emirati official to Damascus in 2021, will continue and accelerate. This year could see Syria return to the Arab League due to the frustration of reactionary Arabs with US support. As a defeated country, the United States has no choice but to withdraw its troops from Syria, and the process of rebuilding the country will accelerate after the withdrawal of foreigners.

With the beginning of 2022 and the end of the deadline, the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq has become a serious demand of the Iraqi people. Although the United States is trying to maintain its military presence as an "advisory mission", it is unlikely that the Iraqi people, especially the revolutionary forces, will accept the  presence of assassins of Sardar Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes in their country. This year, the arena will be narrower for American forces, and with their withdrawal from Iraq, the country will move towards greater stability and security.

In Yemen, the Yemeni army will continue to advance towards Saudi Arabia and Bab al-Mandeb, and the process of liberating all the occupied areas from Al-Wadi, the last city in the MA 'rib region, will be completed. In the same process, the liberation of the other eastern and southern provinces of Yemen will be possible, and the Ansar Ullah will monitor the traffic in this strategic strait by attending Bab al-Mandeb. Also, by developing the process of building and using ballistic missiles and suicide bombers, they will aim for more distant and important targets deep in Saudi territory, and the rulers of Riyadh will have no choice but to hand over Yemen to its people and find a dignified solution to escape the current crisis.

In Afghanistan, the inability of the Taliban to run the country and the rise of ISIS terrorist activities to destabilize Afghanistan will create many problems for the afghan people. Western countries and international institutions will continue to ignore the humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan, while at the same time holding their impersonal meetings under the guise of helping the Afghan people. Non-Pashtun groups will gradually take their empowerment and alliance against the Taliban seriously, and civil war in the country will be inevitable unless the Taliban seek to form a comprehensive government. Meanwhile, Afghanistan's neighbors will continue their contacts with the government and ethnic groups and will work to ensure security and stability in the country. Which is unlikely to happen, at least in 2022.

2022 is the year of further isolation of the Zionist regime in the region and the world. The regime, dubbed the apartheid regime by the intensification of racist attitudes towards Arabs, will remain mired in domestic political problems and will gradually lose the support of its supporters by insisting on the continuation of Jewish settlements. The siege of the occupying regime by the Axis forces will continue and Israeli aggression against occupied Palestine, especially Gaza, will not go unanswered. By 2022, the decline of the occupying regime in Jerusalem will accelerate as the Palestinian people continue to resist, and the process of Jewish migration from the occupied territories will accelerate.

In the Caucasus, the consequences of the 44-day war between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020, which led to a ceasefire agreement in Moscow, will continue. Although the Moscow agreement led to the liberation of the seven occupied cities of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the non-liberation of Nagorno-Karabakh destabilized the situation. The ambiguities in the Moscow agreement remain in 2022 and are likely to lead to ceasefire violations, sporadic conflicts and insecurity. The unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh issue will perpetuate the contentious issues between Baku and Yerevan, including how to use the Zəngəzur corridor. Meanwhile, Turkey's efforts to normalize relations with Armenia, greed to use the Zəngəzur transit route, and Azerbaijan's desire to use the corridor more quickly, may lead to concessions to Armenia, such as using the Nakhichevan transit route to reach Iran and Turkey. The Republic of Azerbaijan may accept that Armenia will use the Nakhichevan route on a limited and conditional basis. However, due to structural problems, including the non-repair of the existing railway between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the Zəngəzur route will not be opened in 2022. This year, the competition between the EU and Russia for a greater presence in the Caucasus will intensify under the pretext of easing the situation, and the opening of NATO members to the region will create new problems for the Caucasus countries.

The US-Europe dispute with Russia over Ukraine will be one of the threats to world peace in 2022. Evidence shows that the West is not reluctant to incite Kiev to go to war with Moscow, which would involve Russia in a serious conflict. It may be the beginning of a confrontation in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. The West is well aware that Moscow can not be indifferent to the danger that threatens many Russian citizens in the Donbas. The continued supply of military equipment to Ukraine by NATO members and the rejection of Moscow's proposals for regional security are among the evidences of the West's unwillingness to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In 2022, equipping Georgia's military to force Russia to change its policies in Ukraine could also be on NATO's agenda. The recent visit of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to Tbilisi and the continuation of this visit to Ukraine, which led to the extension of US and Georgian military training programs, as well as US support for Georgia's membership in NATO, should be considered a warning to Russia. Of course, the escalation of the US-China dispute, which is not expected to end in 2022, could bring Moscow and Beijing closer and design joint plans to confront the US in the Pacific and Eurasian regions and change the global equation.


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