Nov 26, 2019, 1:07 PM
Journalist ID: 2382
News Code: 83569452
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Consequences of non-compliance to JCPOA for EU troika

Tehran, Nov 26, IRNA - Iran's scaling back steps concerning commitment to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action reciprocating the US withdrawal and the EU failure to honor their commitments, have put the nuclear deal at risk and subsequent heavy economic, political and security costs for the EU states.

Iran's nuclear deal with P5 + 1 that has changed to 4+1 with the US withdrawal is suffering turbulences these days. Europe's repeated promises on the one hand, and Tehran's scale-back steps, on the other, are increasingly pushing this deal to the brink of collapse; a situation that is more than anything affected by the US refusal to abide by the international Agreement endorsed by the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231 requiring to lift all the economic sanctions on Iran.

With the United States withdrawal from the JCPOA, the focus has been shifted to the European Union, especially the three European states signatories to the nuclear deal (Troika of Germany, France and Britain) to find a way out. Up to now, we have seen many approaches and mechanisms adopted by the European Union. For example, the SPV, which was due to enter into executive phase by mid-November last year, following a second round of US sanctions, finally gave way to INSTEX after months of delay; the mechanism was first reflected in a statement by the three EU member states in a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on January 31, 2019, but has not yet entered the executive phase leading Tehran to take some remedial measures to reciprocate the EU inaction.

Iran's expectation from the European Troika to implement the JCPOA and fill the vacuum after the US exit and the White House pressures has not been met. According to observers, if Europe had implemented the INSTEX mechanisms to foil US sanctions, it would certainly have taken Trump out of maneuvering.

In this regard, in the middle of April, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, in a Twitter message, criticized the European position and wrote that one year after the illegal US measure to abolish the JCPOA, Europe has failed to accumulate the political will to confront "Economic Terrorism". The EU failed to create INSTEX banking channel for purchase of food and medicines for Iran. Instead, the three European nations are now pleasing Donald Trump by pressing Iran on national defense capabilities.

The question for many is, what consequences will Europe, especially the three European members of the nuclear agreement, face on by the continued renegade on their nuclear obligations and collapse of the JCPOA?

Among the threats posed to Europeans are the issue of immigrants and asylum seekers. The EU has been experiencing floods of migrants and asylum seekers in recent years due to its proximity to the crisis-stricken Middle East and North Africa. Increased terrorist activity has made the region unsafe for years and has raised the voice of protest from European citizens. So, in the absence of the JCPOA and the current escalation in the region, it is less the United States and the most the EU will suffer from the current situation.

Among the concerns of European countries such as Spain, Portugal, Italy are job cuts and the rising unemployment rates, which have increased dramatically in the context of the economic crisis as well as the influx of immigrants. A mid-March 2018 report by the EU's Statistics Center showed the average unemployment rate in the five euro-zone member states remained unchanged at 7.8 percent by the end of January, but the unemployment rate excluding the powerful states and a small number of the 28 EU member states remain high.

Increased insecurity and increased terrorist moves are another consequence of the influx of asylum seekers, which has become a platform for greater empowerment of right-wing and extremist European parties causing the European countries to incur huge costs to counter the influx of immigrants. Part of this EU immigration policy can be seen in the € 6 billion deal with Turkey, which has paid about one-third of that so far, and that Turkey is accepting Syrian refugees for EU financial aid and preventing them from entering the EU. The funds are said to be used to carry out projects to meet the health, education, infrastructure, food and other needs of Syrian refugees.

On the other hand, immigrants and asylum seekers who have migrated to Europe for the last decade have imposed high financial costs on host countries. For example, the German government last year spent € 23 billion on immigrants and refugees in the country, up by about 11% increase compared to the previous year.

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