Jan 28, 2016, 11:37 PM
News Code: 81939893
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Al-Quds Intifada, future scenarios

Tehran, Jan 28, IRNA – Palestinian uprising against the Israeli occupation began about four months ago in the West Bank and the Occupied al-Quds; an uprising which is also known as the 'Intifada of Knives'. Despite such a relatively long time, one cannot predict what finally would happen for this popular uprising. The reason for such an uncertainty lies in the challenges facing the Intifada and most importantly the internal disputes between the Palestinian groups.

Due to a deadlock in peace talks, Al-Quds Intifada has powerful incentives to continue and has had large effects on the Zionists, as it has raised their concern over the future of this Intifada and the fact that it may get out of control, to the extent that even the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) may also fail to manage and control it. However, the PNA in collaboration with the Zionist regime makes attempts to adopt security measures to stop the Intifada. In fact, the measures taken by PNA are among the factors which increase the uncertainties and concerns about the future of the Palestinian Intifada.
In addition to the security measures of the Palestinian National Authority, the Israeli regime has also had several options to deal with the Intifada: as it may continue the current policy and place more pressures on the Palestinians to control it, or they may have to seek an approach to begin negotiations with the Palestinian National Authority. Nevertheless, due to the approach and policies pursued by the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, it is expected that he would be willing to negotiate with the Palestinian National Authority only if the Intifada is intensified and reaches its highest point, and the government is inclined towards such negotiations. Currently, the Israeli government is not willing to do such a thing and Netanyahu has to make some changes in his coalition and enters in to his coalition some other groups who are in favor of negotiating with the Palestinian National Authority.
It should be noted that in current situation, Netanyahu is unlikely to act against Hamas and open a new front in the Gaza Strip under the pretext of the Palestinian National Authority’s support for the Intifada, unless Intifada is so much intensified that he is forced to do it or he fails to convince his allies in the government to negotiate with the Palestinian National Authority.
Accordingly, the following scenarios are likely for the Palestinian Intifada in the occupied territories:
- First, the status quo may continue and the Palestinian National Authority goes on to expand its security cooperation with the Israeli security forces, and manages to suppress the Intifada, an option which is unlikely to succeed as result of a dead end created in the negotiations.
- The second scenario is that the status quo be maintained without the organizational support of the Palestinian groups from the Intifada, and the current situation and circles recur for the Intifada. However, in the current circumstances, this scenario could be a plausible one because there is no defined strategy for the uprising and there are no prominent leaders who can find some supporters among the Arab and Islamic countries.
- The third scenario is based on the idea of expansion of Intifada and increased severity of Palestinian attacks against the Zionists, this may result in considerable achievements and force the Israeli regime to grant some concessions to the Palestinians, the same way it did in the first and second Intifada. (Alwaght.com)
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