Four years later, Israel's presence expanded in the territory controlled by Azerbaijan near the border with Iran. And in recent years, India has become Armenia's main arms supplier. With new actors directly and indirectly involved in the dynamic developments, Azerbaijan and Turkey are setting new goals for themselves. These are the goals that will impact the geopolitics of the region.
What is the need for new goals?
For 30 years since its formation, Azerbaijan has built its state identity on antagonism and hate towards Armenia. In this context, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue was only a small detail. Turkey, which is Azerbaijan's main ally, has continued Baku's strategic line. Ankara organised a blockade of Armenia, which continues until today, refusing to normalise relations until Yerevan settles its problems with Azerbaijan by surrendering Nagorno-Karabakh. This very point was the main precondition for the normalisation of relations between Ankara and Yerevan.
Three years have passed since the Third Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. Armenia has officially withdrawn its armed forces from Nagorno-Karabakh, did not provide any support and conducted negotiations on the normalisation of relations with Azerbaijan. Baku continued to raise new demands, which Yerevan fulfilled: recognition of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, including Nagorno-Karabakh. However, later the demands turned out beyond Nagorno-Karabakh. Firstly, the transfer to Azerbaijan of settlements from the territory of Armenia, which Baku considers its "enclaves". Second, the providing of the "Zangezur corridor" through the territory of Armenia to connect Turkey and Azerbaijan. Thirdly, providing guarantees for the population of Armenian territory by Azerbaijani citizens.
This approach clearly demonstrates that the problem of Armenian-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Turkish relations has not been limited solely to Nagorno-Karabakh. In the process of peace treaty discussions, Baku insists that the document should include Armenia's recognition of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity with an area of 86,600 km2, which includes Nagorno-Karabakh. However, Baku itself refuses to recognise Armenia's territorial integrity. This is the key indicator of Baku's expansionist intentions.
After Aliyev raised the Azerbaijani flag in Shushi and then in Stepanakert, he fulfilled his "historical mission". To maintain the anti-Armenian narrative that serves as the basis of the state, as well as to continue consolidating society around the ruling elite, Aliyev needs to set new global goals.
What are the new goals?
After the 2020 war Baku has begun to put the "Zangezur Corridor" and "West Azerbaijan" narratives on the agenda. All of them are expansionist in nature and are supported by Turkey.
The "Zangezur Corridor" project is one of the key and short-term projects. It foresees a direct connection between Turkey and Azerbaijan through the territory of Armenia, which is officially recorded in the Shushi Declaration of 2021 between Baku and Ankara. This project is not economic, but political, as the Turkish leadership has stated. It is also of high priority for Azerbaijan. In the summer of 2023, Aliyev stated that "the Zangezur Corridor” will be definitely opened, whether Armenia wants it or not". Later, Aliyev's aide Hikmet Hajiyev stated that "Baku is no longer interested in the project of creating the "Zangezur Corridor" through the territory of Armenia". Such a change of discourse became possible due to the activity of Iran, which forced Baku to agree to its proposal to modernise the existing route through the territory of the Islamic Republic. In this way Tehran temporarily reduced the military and political pressure on Armenia from Turkey and Azerbaijan. However, this month Aliyev declared again that "there should be free access to Nakhichevan from Azerbaijan, so there should be no customs fees, checks, border guard procedures". In other words, the Azerbaijani president is talking about a corridor without using the word "corridor". Therefore, in fact, neither Baku nor Ankara have abandoned their expansionist intentions, including on the issue of the "Zangezur corridor", because the main goal is more global.
Baku continues to actively construct the narrative of "Western Azerbaijan". According to this narrative, modern Armenia is "Western Azerbaijan". The construction in the social consciousness takes place in the following manner. Firstly, state channels cover news and weather forecasts from the territory of Armenia as "West Azerbaijan", and officials of state institutions use only Azerbaijani toponyms, hydronyms and other labels in official statements. Secondly, the relevant infrastructure is being prepared in the form of the "Community of Western Azerbaijan". It receives direct state support from President Aliyev. This is how a new expansionist demand is constructed in the social consciousness.
There had already been a split among the pan-Turkists. For example, the establishment of the "Goycha-Zangezur Republic" was announced on the territory of Turkey. According to its "founders", it included part of the territory of modern Armenia. After the initiators were detained in Baku, there was a statement according to which the "Goycha-Zangezur Republic" ceases to exist, and "return to West Azerbaijan" is possible with the continuation of the right course of President Aliyev and the work of the "Community of West Azerbaijan". Therefore, after the split there is consolidation around precisely Baku's state course of establishing control over the territory of Armenia.
Thus, despite the failure to implement the "Zangezur Corridor" project in the short term, the very idea is linked to the longer term expansionist perspective of "West Azerbaijan". Therefore, any arrangements between Yerevan and Baku will not be peace, but a ceasefire between wars. Baku and Ankara's expansionism can only be contained by establishing power balance. Therefore, the purchase of arms by Armenia for defence purposes provokes sharp reactions from Turkey and Azerbaijan. Despite this, the only way to establish peace in the region is to mitigate and nullify the expansionist plans of Baku and Ankara.
Sergei Melkonian is an APRI Armenia Research Fellow.
Views expressed in this article do not necessarily represent those of the IRNA's.
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