“Iran” newspaper published a memo by the political researcher Amir-Hossein Sabeti on Monday, outlining the state of play after former US President Donald Trump pulled of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the nuclear deal, and started a maximum pressure campaign against Iran by resuming unilateral sanctions lifted by the deal. The following is summarized translation of the memo:
Former White House National Security Advisor John Bolton had said four years ago that Iran wouldn’t see the 40th anniversary of its 1979 Islamic Revolution, suggesting that the Islamic Republic is about to collapse due to Trump’s maximum pressure policy which was imposed against Iran after Barack Obama’s crippling sanctions.
The literature in the Western media in recent years indicate that this was not only Bolton’s opinion, rather many in Western countries believed that the Islamic Republic would collapse as a result of Trump’s maximum pressure.
The US pressure caused huge financial troubles for Iranian people and impacted their livelihood, but failed to fulfil the main goal of regime change in Iran. The Americans also had declared changing Iran’s behavior as a goal, but Iran is now moving in a path in its nuclear program that contrast with the US’ view, although Tehran slowed down the pace of its nuclear activities in a period.
Iran had a bad experience with the JCPOA which led to the weakening of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and infrastructure as well as increasing the sanctions pressure by the US.
However, Iran has restored its nuclear capability today and is adding up its enriched uranium stockpile while the US has exhausted sanctions and has no more tools to impose more sanctions.
This is not a claim made by those who are considered US opponents, but a historical confession made by the "US officials". The US State Department spokesman Ned Price said earlier this month that the previous administration in Washington left a terrible set of options and that the maximum pressure campaign was an abject failure. “Everything that it promised, the opposite ended up coming true”, he said.
Why do the US officials make such clear confessions? For a clear reason: the Islamic Republic hasn’t collapsed a decade after Obama’s crippling sanctions and Trump’s maximum pressure, much to the American’s chagrin.
Another important event in Iran’s political sphere that has intensified US failure was the new administration’s taking office in August last year that was followed by a series of events.
Iran is not eager to negotiate its defense capabilities and regional influence. Iran ascended to full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and has increased its oil sale to 1.5 million barrels per day, while the Trump administration has said that they would bring Iran’s oil sale to zero. Moreover, Iran has begun implementing its 25-year strategic partnership agreement with China.
The US is pushing to define a deadline for the talks in Vienna to revive the JCPOA, because the time is passing for Iran’s benefit as it is advancing its nuclear program and the US sanctions are losing effect after the have exhausted sanctions against Iran.
How will be the future? There is no doubt that the US will never give up sanctions which is their main tool in this war. They will walk back only when they’re certain that the sanctions continue to lose effect. This process has already begun and will bear fruit by the resistance of the Iranian nation.
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